Thursday 27 October 2011

Germany v "Financial Markets": the only game in town


This morning Herman van Rompuy said in his speech in Strasbourg that he expected Greece to achieve a level of debt of 120% to its GDP by 2020. This is what is considered by eurocrats and the "financial markets" as sustainable. If this figure is anything to go by then we can easily unravel what the "financial markets" game towards Germany is all about. Ultimately the banks love debtors provided they are credible and pay. And none is better than Germany in that respect.

Currently the Germany public debt is on the level of 85% of its GDP. Therefore it would be beneficial for the "financial markets" if Germany "borrowed" additional 35% (to reach a level of 120%). The best way of borrowing would not really be borrowing in a traditional sense of this word (for example to invest) but generating liabilities out of thin air to the financial institutions (e.g. bailouts, rescuing Greece, Italy, etc.). Additional 35% of German GDP would give the "financial markets" around 1 trillion euro.

So by hook or by crook, expect a lot of maneuverings on the "financial markets" to force Germany to part with their money. Another crisis, another "market uncertainty", another threat of bankrupting:... Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal (take your pick, it does not matter which one). This is what the game is all about, Euro is a very handy tool for the "financial markets" to conduct a process of trying to extort money from Germany for the "financial markets". Printing presses in the US and the UK have a limited speed after all. That is why Germany leaving Euro is quite a plausible proposition. Angela Merkel does not look like a mug and is rather unlikely to be sucked into this game.

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