On 7 October 2010 The Economist published an article "The costs of repair". Its author wrote:
"So far the current recovery is following this post-crisis script. Output is sluggish and credit is growing weakly or shrinking across much of the rich world. But is this because over-leveraged households and firms have become less willing to borrow or because banks have become less willing to lend? In other words, is the credit problem one of demand or supply?"
Then the author concluded: "Both supply and demand probably play a role."
The question is wrong and the answer is wrong too. The problem is neither of supply nor demand but of liquidity: i.e. too high money multiplier makes it too risky to lend and to borrow. Banks do not have money to lend without fear of losing liquidity and money is too hard to come by to repay loans which is putting off prospective borrowers. In terms of statistical analysis (correlation) such situation will show up on both: supply and demand as causes, as both are causally subsequent to an underlying (and overriding) cause which is too high money multiplier (i.e. liquidity shortage). Here you can read more on liquidity shortage caused by high money multiplier.
Hopefully such money multiplier based analysis of the current financial crisis finds its way into the mainstream.
Incidentally it appears that the mainstream economists put too much weight, without understanding, on statistics and real analysis (in mathematics) and too little (practically nothing) on other branches of maths such as topology (that allow to determine relationships between phenomena which are the subject of an analysis). And The Economist and the mainstream media and the politicians are just confused. Little wonder, over 2 years after the Lehman Bros collapse the financial world remains in a mess and the taxpayers keep paying for it: after stimuli, spending cuts. What's next since the end is not in sight?
PS. Interestingly, it was The Economist that wrote the post script to this article. On 22 October 2010 they wrote in Benoit Mandelbrot obituary: "That markets are not Gaussian has now been accepted. Dr Mandelbrot’s interpretation, however, has not. Even if it had been, the bankers might not have noticed. They preferred algorithms to geometry." It is a good step forward. However if The Economist understood what they were writing about they would refer to topology rather than geometry.
"So far the current recovery is following this post-crisis script. Output is sluggish and credit is growing weakly or shrinking across much of the rich world. But is this because over-leveraged households and firms have become less willing to borrow or because banks have become less willing to lend? In other words, is the credit problem one of demand or supply?"
Then the author concluded: "Both supply and demand probably play a role."
The question is wrong and the answer is wrong too. The problem is neither of supply nor demand but of liquidity: i.e. too high money multiplier makes it too risky to lend and to borrow. Banks do not have money to lend without fear of losing liquidity and money is too hard to come by to repay loans which is putting off prospective borrowers. In terms of statistical analysis (correlation) such situation will show up on both: supply and demand as causes, as both are causally subsequent to an underlying (and overriding) cause which is too high money multiplier (i.e. liquidity shortage). Here you can read more on liquidity shortage caused by high money multiplier.
Hopefully such money multiplier based analysis of the current financial crisis finds its way into the mainstream.
Incidentally it appears that the mainstream economists put too much weight, without understanding, on statistics and real analysis (in mathematics) and too little (practically nothing) on other branches of maths such as topology (that allow to determine relationships between phenomena which are the subject of an analysis). And The Economist and the mainstream media and the politicians are just confused. Little wonder, over 2 years after the Lehman Bros collapse the financial world remains in a mess and the taxpayers keep paying for it: after stimuli, spending cuts. What's next since the end is not in sight?
PS. Interestingly, it was The Economist that wrote the post script to this article. On 22 October 2010 they wrote in Benoit Mandelbrot obituary: "That markets are not Gaussian has now been accepted. Dr Mandelbrot’s interpretation, however, has not. Even if it had been, the bankers might not have noticed. They preferred algorithms to geometry." It is a good step forward. However if The Economist understood what they were writing about they would refer to topology rather than geometry.
Hat’s off. Well done, as we know that “hard work always pays off”, after a long struggle with sincere effort it’s done.
ReplyDelete================
vernon getzler
High Yield Savings Account
"What's next since the end is not in sight?"
ReplyDeleteMay I tentatively suggest that a further debauching of currency may be next?
It's like a student having raided his father's malt whisky decanter and, being frightened of discovery, has made up the level with tapwater. Having got away with that once (or, indeed, several times over the years) he is now going to do it again. The resulting
diluted drink is not going to fool Papa when he gets home and demands an accounting...