If you are new to this blog, you are invited to read first “The Largest Heist in History” which was accepted as evidence and published by the British Parliament, House of Commons, Treasury Committee.

"It is typically characterised by strong, compelling, logic. I loosely use the term 'pyramid selling' to describe the activities of the City but you explain in crystal clear terms why this is so." commented Dr Vincent Cable MP to the author.

This blog demonstrates that:

- the financial system was turned into a pyramid scheme in a technical, legal sense (not just proverbial);

- the current crisis was easily predictable (without any benefit of hindsight) by any competent financier, i.e. with rudimentary knowledge of mathematics, hence avoidable.

It is up to readers to draw their own conclusions. Whether this crisis is a result of a conspiracy to defraud taxpayers, or a massive negligence, or it is just a misfortune, or maybe a Swedish count, Axel Oxenstierna, was right when he said to his son in the 17th century: "Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?".

Thursday, 13 January 2011

"Financial markets" loan-shark mechanism at works


On 11 January 2011, The Financial Times published the following graphic:


The graph of 10-year government bond yields show that they grew considerably, manyfold, in the last 12 months. Yet nothing has happened in the last 12 months that was not predicted 12 months (or even longer) ago. For at least last 18 months the world financial situation (e.g. economic growth, banks liquidity, sovereign debt, etc) is going very well according to predictions. (It is a matter of judgement but one might say that things are going worse according to "plan".) Therefore 10-years government bond yields should be the same (or within a very narrow margin) now as they were a year ago. But they are not. In a nutshell the system works as follows:

1. In the past year governments were pressurised to cut public spending. Making such cuts creates a financial room for governments to spend more money on servicing the debt (i.e. pay more taxpayers money to the banks).

2. Then the so-called "financial markets" increase bond yields, which results in paying more taxpayers money to the banks. This was facilitated by public spending cuts.

3. Hence, in practice, what governments saved by making these cuts, is transferred to the banks by increased bond yields mechanism. In fact it is more: as the FT graph shows the government debt keeps growing which creates yet more pressure for further public spending cuts. Littles doubt, once they are made the bond yield will be increased further. And the process will be repeated.

It is not a sophisticated financial mechanism. It is not innovative at all. It does not require a "successful" (as the British Prime Minister Cameron called it) financial industry. No need of well qualified bankers to implement it. It is the most classic loan sharks' strategy: primitive no-brainer.

Incidentally it was predicted in "The largest heist in history", an article written over two years ago, that this was the direction the financial industry would go unless governments took a decisive action.

38 comments:

  1. What a load of tosh. If governments increased public spending and increased the number of bonds issued to fund it then bond yields would rise even faster. Lower government spend should slow down the increase in bond yields over time.

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  2. Hi Mark

    Thanks for your comment. Please do not imply things that I have never written (or implied). It is a rather primitive discussion tactics to write or imply a nonsense ("tosh"), attribute it to someone else (in this case me) and then dish out a wide-sweeping criticism ("what a load of tosh"). You basically criticised yourself of ill-thought argument that you attributed to me.

    Therefore I suggest you read my post carefully (and I trust you are capable of understanding it as there is nothing complicated there). For clarity:

    1. I do not suggest that governments should borrow more. In fact I believe that that governments should borrow much less and run very conservative, balanced budgets.

    2. What I described in my post was how the banking industry pressures governments to make cuts and then forces (through bond market mechanism) to pass the benefit of these cuts to the banks. And there are more mechanism like this. It does not imply that making cuts is bad or borrowing is good, but simply shows the way the financial industry found a way to put their hands into taxpayers pockets. It is a loan shark way.

    Best

    Greg

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Mark

    If you read (with understanding) my 2 years old article, "The largest heist in history", you would have realised that the main reason for the banks to implement a primitive loan shark strategy is that the banking system lacks liquidity. I.e. the money multiplier is incredibly high (the lowest estimate I found was 150, but it may well be 1500 and growing). This is basically the scale of the financial pyramid that the bankers engineered. Therefore government cuts (which are good in principle) in theory in a normally functioning markets (i.e. with money multiplier below 8 - 10) would eventually decrease bond yields. However the huge magnitude of the money multiplier makes the situation intractable: whatever the governments cut the banks will come back for it (as they need it to reduce the money multiplier, in other words stabilise the financial pyramid).

    Hence in a normal markets public spending cuts result in reduction of bond yields. In the current markets, which is basically illiquid pyramid scheme, public spending cuts create a situation that banks may demand more for the debt (and get it). As you should see the market is completely dysfunctional and even really good moves in principle do not result - as they should - in good effects.

    Best

    Greg

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear Greg

    I dispute

    "2. Then the so-called "financial markets" increase bond yields, which results in paying more taxpayers money to the banks. This was facilitated by public spending cuts."

    Rising bond yields only affects the cost to govt of NEW bond issues. The spending cuts could result in a balanced budget which means no new bond issues and zero dipping by 'financial markets' into taxpayers pockets.

    The rise in yields is part justified insurance against haircuts plus some herd panic by investors. I think we all agree the best response to get the 'bankstas' off our back is to reduce the deficit to zero ASAP.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Paul and Rina

    I hope you realise that you dispute the fact (which I referred to in point 2). So I have no comment to make.

    Furthermore governments roll over a lot of debt so a lot of NEW debt is in fact old debt which was rolled over.

    I agree that with "zero deficit" approach to public spending. But the current financial crisis requires a more complex solution. I presented it in an article: "Prime Minister, sort out this mess, please".

    Best

    Greg

    ReplyDelete
  6. Is the date of the graph wrong? Shouldn't it read 11 January 2011? Or am I missing something?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Stuart

    You are right. Correction made. Many thanks.

    Best

    Greg

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Greg

    I've been reading your blog and other financial websites for quite a while now. As you will be aware, there are all manner of theories about what has happened, how it happened and what will happen next. It seems nobody is complete agreement about anything and I guess it depends where each individual is coming from, their particular interests etc, is a large determining factor behind the conclusions they reach.

    I've read through your blogs and have found them interesting and informative, and they have certainly got me thinking. I'm not a financial expert, I just have an enquiring mind.

    At the end of this missive, you say "Incidentally it was predicted in 'The largest heist in history', an article written over two years ago, that this was the direction the financial industry would go unless governments took a decisive action."

    It's the "unless governments took a decisive action" that puzzles me.

    Do you mean "a decisive action" or would that have been better worded "decisive actions".

    Do you believe there was/is a single action governments could have taken or would it have required several or a series?

    If so, what action(s) would you recommend - briefly, if possible - that could solve the problem(s)?

    I suspect you may have answered these questions before, so a link will suffice if you have.

    Many thanks

    Stuart

    ReplyDelete
  9. Stuart wrote (as was sent to me via e-mail):

    Hi Greg

    I've been reading your blog and other financial websites for quite a while now. As you will be aware, there are all manner of theories about what has happened, how it happened and what will happen next. It seems nobody is complete agreement about anything and I guess it depends where each individual is coming from, their particular interests etc, is a large determining factor behind the conclusions they reach.

    I've read through your blogs and have found them interesting and informative, and they have certainly got me thinking. I'm not a financial expert, I just have an enquiring mind.

    At the end of this missive, you say "Incidentally it was predicted in 'The largest heist in history', an article written over two years ago, that this was the direction the financial industry would go unless governments took a decisive action."

    It's the "unless governments took a decisive action" that puzzles me.

    Do you mean "a decisive action" or would that have been better worded "decisive actions".

    Do you believe there was/is a single action governments could have taken or would it have required several or a series?

    If so, what action(s) would you recommend - briefly, if possible - that could solve the problem(s)?

    I suspect you may have answered these questions before, so a link will suffice if you have.

    Many thanks

    Stuart

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Stuart

    This is what I mean by a "decisive action" as I recommended over two years ago, citing from "The largest heist in history":

    "Unless and until the governments identify, isolate and write off toxic instruments held by financial institutions every pound put into “rescue” is very likely to end up being good money thrown after bad. (The governments, as ultimate customers of the global pyramid scheme, are supplying the pyramid purveyors and beneficiaries with tax payers’ cash and the largest heist in history continues.) Alongside the liquidation process, but after the toxic waste has been isolated and fenced off in failed financial institutions, governments must launch a fiscal stimulus package and go after the pyramid purveyors and beneficiaries to recover any cash and assets from them and bring them to justice. As the financial pyramid scheme is global, any action — including the recovery cash and assets — must be global, too."

    In the current context I listed what-to-do action point in "Prime Minister, sort out this mess, please".

    Best

    Greg

    ReplyDelete
  11. Mark:- it is so obvious you are arguing with the mathematical and physical facts - which i doubt he has even read - because you have got it 'absolutely' and 'without any doubt' worked out that all this financial mess was caused by the lazy unemployed and scroungers alongside the wasteful incompetant labour party which spent its way into all of this financial crisis - it suits the right wing agenda to perversely uphold such a disgraceful and dangerously incorrect view.

    The financial crisis firstly was/is global (i dont think gordon or the labour party ruled the world). The financial world already was a pyramid for the rich for a long time, limited it seems, only by the limited sums of available money investors had to invest (gamble)in it - only the masses didn't realise it and those who did could do nothing to change it. As more people - particularly foriegn, or overseas - gained wealth and looked to invest it - it has openly exposed the system for what it was - a cash cow for the rich at the expense of the majority of everyone else. As more and more money went into the system - it looked for more and more to be pumped out as returns. The 300% loan to deposit ratios and above, are just the grotesque levels of vulgarity the bank operated pyramid scheme developed into. Add to it the humongous trade defecits and the inevitable illegal activities that exists wherever there is money flowing and we get pretty much to where we are today.

    If you want to blame gordon for anything - blame him for nievity bordering on incompetance with him completely failing to understand how vicious the greedy men of the world really are - something cameron and clegg are doing just the same - no, i predict even worse - they trully think the zero borrowing model is achievable and desirable when truth be known it is more than likely neither - and whilst they inflict that straight jacket on the population the unscruperlous vultures will be stealing all of the extra saved cash they put into the majic unprotected deposit box (an illegal pyramid) whilst the original perpertrators try to work out how to take the still profitable top of the pyramid to one side and start it off again - leaving the rest of the enormous pyramid to collapse on the tax payer and blame it all on the unemployed. You well fell for that crap - hope i can help others to see the reality in a hope we can do what needs to be done:-

    http://gregpytel.blogspot.com/2010/06/prime-minister-sort-out-this-mess.html

    We are all in this together - but i dont see any sign of YOU..??

    Best Regards ALL

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