If you are new to this blog, you are invited to read first “The Largest Heist in History” which was accepted as evidence and published by the British Parliament, House of Commons, Treasury Committee.

"It is typically characterised by strong, compelling, logic. I loosely use the term 'pyramid selling' to describe the activities of the City but you explain in crystal clear terms why this is so." commented Dr Vincent Cable MP to the author.

This blog demonstrates that:

- the financial system was turned into a pyramid scheme in a technical, legal sense (not just proverbial);

- the current crisis was easily predictable (without any benefit of hindsight) by any competent financier, i.e. with rudimentary knowledge of mathematics, hence avoidable.

It is up to readers to draw their own conclusions. Whether this crisis is a result of a conspiracy to defraud taxpayers, or a massive negligence, or it is just a misfortune, or maybe a Swedish count, Axel Oxenstierna, was right when he said to his son in the 17th century: "Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?".

Monday, 18 April 2011

S&P: downgrade of US debt outlook


A rating agency S&P kept America’s credit rating at AAA. However for the first time in its 70 years rating history of the US debt, the agency cut its outlook from “stable” to “negative”. A negative outlook means there is a one-third chance of a downgrade below AAA in the next two years. It is yet another sign that the financial crisis is progressing as expected. This can hardly be called a blow for US debt. It is simply a well predicted result. One can also reasonably expect a US grand finale in some form predicted in an article "A US way out?" two years ago.

The lower the US, and indeed any other country's, debt rating the higher the interest rate that has to be paid on it. Hence the beneficiaries are the banks that, incidentally, caused such massive sovereign debt mounting in the first instance by engineering the pyramid scheme that collapsed causing the credit crunch in September 2008. As predicted two and half years ago "The largest heist in history" continues and there seems to be no end to it in sight.

7 comments:

  1. I quite sure this is, perhaps #2, one of the greatest shortcomings of we humans.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LubuSAgB5s

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  2. The 3rd greatest problem – forfeiture of the “‘m,”

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  3. greg - where you at man? things going on and you have nothing to say...? all good or not?

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  4. Dear Reginald

    I have written what I had to say. Basically what's happening now is well described in the first article on this blog: "The largest heist in history" (which was written two and half years ago but it is more up to date than ever). I have rehashing my old articles, as I have already done, saying "I told you so long time ago". Maybe it gives some satisfaction (and who does not like it?) but ultimately it is a bit of waste of time.

    So now I am leaving all to the mainstream commentators from likes of the FT or The Economist. I have actually started working on the account of the current crisis in more scientific way. But this will take a couple of years for me to get it to a publishable state.

    Thanks and best wishes

    Greg

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  5. "The lower the US, and indeed any other country's, debt rating the higher the interest rate that has to be paid on it"

    Really? a year later and yet the rate is even lower.

    First time ive read this blog, and agree its a heist but your whole model is wrong although the mathmatics is impressive you really need to learn some double entry bookeeping, loans create deposits not the other way round.

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    1. Indeed, the answer is: without this downgrade the US rate would be even lower.

      But this is "what - if" question and there is no correct answer as we cannot really check by experiment the alternative scenario. I would say if you are correct - and you well may be - then the rating agencies are not performing their functions properly and at best they are irrelevant and misleading and, at worst, they are part of the deliberate scam that is currently happening in so-called "financial markets". I do not have a view on that but I think these are the issues that have to be considered.

      Best, Greg

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  6. Actually Greg its not a what if question at all, you assume that bonds are a government funding operation but what if they arnt? What if they are just a monetary operation in that its the way (in this case the fed) set its rates. What you would see in this scenerio is no effect at all from a downgrade as the fed control them to hit its target rate. Now as we are a year on what sounds more likely as yields have been driven down (to practically zero) Your post here or the scenerio ive given you?

    Ah the rating agencies just dont understand it (or if they do they are pretending they dont)

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